Sun

 



Understanding Global Warming

It is sunshine that warms.


The sun warms the Earth. Variability is created by the sunshine that reaches down to the Earth's surface. Sunshine heats land and sea. Land and sea heat the air. Danish astrophysicist Henrik Svensmark has shown the importance of cloud cover for the climate, but not all clouds are equally important. However, this mechanism may not be transparent to lay people. Sunshine data is otherwise intuitively understandable and turn out as an excellent reverse proxy for cloud cover.

The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) has measured the number of hours of sunshine nationwide since 1920 and temperatures since 1874 - hyperlink. Intuitively we associate sunshine with warm weather, and it is obvious to try picture both in the same graph.

Figure 1. The drawn lines are 11-year moving averages. Sun and warmth seem to follow surprisingly nicely, but not quite.

Euan Mearns observed similar link in data from Leurchars - a weather station on the same latitude as Aarhus just across the North Sea – hyperlink. The sudden and strong temperature rise we experienced at the end of the 20th century - a full 1.7 oC in twenty years is clearly seen accompanied by an equally sharp rise in the number of sunshine hours - a possible major cause, probably the only one.

IPCC does not associate the sun with any significant impact on the climate and the sun is almost absent in their estimation of the radiative forcing of climate between 1750 and 2011 - AR5 Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing - hyperlink.

This may be since the incoming solar radiation - known as insolation - to the outer atmosphere of the globe is relatively constant and that the IPCC regards this as the sole contribution of the sun. Only this assumption can explain the IPCC's failure to recognize the importance of the sun. IPCC shows sluggishness of recognition or understanding of astrophysicists like Valentina Zarkova - hyperlink and Henrik Svensmark - hyperlink.

Two ten-year temperature minima and two temperature maxima are identified. In the next figure they are put together with simultaneous min and max sunshine hours averaged over same ten-year periods.

Figure 2. Two temperature maxima separated by a minimum in 1978-87 coincide with corresponding fluctuations in the number of hours of sunshine. In just over twenty years from 1978-87 to 2000-09, the temperature in Denmark rose 1,7 oC. Simultaneously the number of sunshine hours increased by 349 hours (25%). This warming followed a prior 0,8 oC cooling from 1930-39 to 1978-87 and loss of 251 hours of sunshine

The minimum warmth displayed in the 1880s lies before the measurement of sunshine hours was started. It is uncertain whether we are heading for a new minimum temperature period as outlined, but the upcoming grand solar minimum could indicate that.

Cloud changes could explain all the global warming from  1986 – 2000, and the temperature "pause" after 2000 acc. to O M Pokrovsky – article 2019.

Where flooding and lack of cold at the poles are mainstream concern, the same does not apply to sunshine. In 2018 out of 4½ million Danish holidays abroad over half the trips went to warm destinations with plenty of sun - hyperlink.

Solar forcing!

Sunshine itself is not a mainstream concern. Sunshine is by no means an issue in the climate debate. It is regrettable. Sunshine is the most important climate driver in Denmark.

Undertstanding Glabal Warming, Oversigt - LINK

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