Sea Level

 

Understanding Global Warming

Sea level in Denmark

 

Figure 1. Sea level Fynshav, Denmark. Source: Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) -  hyperlink. The tectonic plate under Scandinavia and us tilt over a line that goes close to Fynshav. The vertical changes are therefore negligible – see SONEL data fig. 2.

June 26, 1997 Bill Clinton spoke at the United Nations Special Session on Environment and Development and said ”Island chains such as the Maldives will disappear from the map, unless we reverse the predictions” - video. The predictions were not reversed, and the Maldives did not disappear.  Why, is explained by prof. Nils-Axel Mörner in an open letter to the president of the Maldives – letter. Coastal erosion is often confused with rising water levels. The same goes for vertical land changes as explained in “Sea Level is Not Rising” by Nils-Axel Mörner - report.


Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) registers sea level in ports all over the world - including The Danish port Fynshav, ID PSMSL 1197. Système d'Observation du Level des Eaux Littorales (SONEL) records GPS station data near some of the same ports. The difference between land elevation / lowering and sea level gives a good picture of the true sea level change. For Fynshav both data sets are available, and the difference is calculated by SONEL and shown in the screenshot below. For Fynshav the sea level difference is 0,80 +/- 0,83 mm per year – not far from the general average rise of approximately 1 mm stated by Nils-Axel Mörner – hyperlink.

The mechanism explained by Nils-Axel Mörner for the linkage of Solar activity with Earth's rotation is the interaction of Solar Wind with the Earth's magnetosphere; the decrease in Solar Wind at sunspot minima weakens the interaction with the magnetosphere that allows the Earth to speed up, and the increase in Solar Wind at sunspot maxima strengthens the interaction with the magnetosphere that slows down the spinning of the Earth. The faster rotation during cold periods the higher sea level at Equator and lower elsewhere.

Figure 2.Fynshav with SONEL data indicating vertical velocity of 0,80 +/- 0,83 mm per year.

Sometimes satellite data – rising 3 to 3,5 mm per year - is depicted in extension of port data, which is interpreted as accelerating water rise. This should be discouraged. Satellite altimetry is complicated as illustrated by NASA in maps from 2019 and 2024. Water level is decreasing near Island on 2019 map, but is moderate increasing on 2024 map.

Regional water levels varies. High values on the southern hemisphere affect the global average.


This figure is based on 1200 dataset’s downloaded from NASA. No acceleration is observed.


Running difference in mm between two adjacent datasets. No acceleration is observed.


Figure 3. Malé, l’île capitale des Maldives – still there. “Our Oceans-Our Future: New Evidence-based Sea Level Records from the Fiji Islands for the Last 500 years Indicating Rotational Eustasy and Absence of a Present Rise in Sea Level” by Nils-Axel Mörner explains why – Article. Also satellite imagery shows 1984–2016 as a fairly stable period, published in "State of the World's Beaches" - Nature Scientific Reports.

The predictions Bill Clinton mentioned in 1997 have not yet led to increasing sea level rise in Denmark.

The real problem with these predictions and the Maldives' existence is that the then president of the United States and his advisers thought the islands would disappear – and some still do.




Understanding Global Warming, Oversigt - LINK

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