Nuclear

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Understanding Global Warming

Nuclear Power

The Nuclear Fade Case (IEA)

As of May 2019, there were 452 nuclear power reactors in operation in 31 countries around the world, with a combined capacity of about 400 gigawatts (GW). Most of the nuclear power plants now in operation in advanced economies were built in the 1970s and 1980s. The most important reason for the collapse of investor appetite for new nuclear projects in Europe and the United States is the project management track record of the last decade – major delays and large cost overruns. The Olkiluoto Nuclear Power Plant in Finland has been under construction since 2005 and the latest estimate for start of regular production is March 2021. The full cost of building the reactor will be about €8.5 billion – tree times more than the original budget.

Increased funding must be set aside for decommissioning. The basic assumption of the Nuclear Fade Case is that no new nuclear power capacity is built beyond those projects already under construction, no further lifetime extensions to existing nuclear reactors are granted and no new investment in existing plants occurs in advanced economies. The sharp fall in nuclear output through the projection period in the Nuclear Fade Case means that renewables – especially wind and solar power – grow even more rapidly. “Nuclear Power in a Clean Energy System” 2019 report by IEA.

Nuclear and radiation accidents and incidents.

An accident at a nuclear power plant can be so severe that it completely overshadows the value of its production. Nuclear power plants are safe, but not against human operating errors. It has caused politicians to shut down running works and refrain from building new ones.

Figure 1. Storage tanks for radioactive water at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

The Chernobyl disaster that rocked the Ukraine in 1986 was a level 7 event too. Only one reactor exploded at Chernobyl, while three reactors experienced meltdowns at Fukushima. Yet the accident at Chernobyl was far more dangerous and released far more cesium-137 than Fukushima did. The long-term hazards arose primarily from strontium-90 and cesium-137, radioactive isotopes with half-lives of 30 years. About 25 PBq of cesium-137 was released to the environment from the three damaged Fukushima reactors, compared to an estimate of 85 PBq for Chernobyl.

The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster

2011 was given the Level 7 event classification of the International Nuclear Event Scale (INES). More than a million tonnes of contaminated water lies in storage but the power company says it will run out of space by 2022. The only option will be to drain it into the sea and dilute it. The government spent 34.5bn yen to build a frozen underground wall to prevent groundwater reaching the three damaged reactor buildings. The wall, however, has succeeded only in reducing the flow of groundwater from about 500 tonnes a day to about 100 tonnes a day. The difficult cleanup job will take 40 or more years with total economic costs estimated at $250–$500 billion. Now Fukushima reinvents itself with a $2.7 billion bet on renewables – 2019.

Both disasters provided important lessons for the world on the inherent risks of using nuclear energy. No one should underestimate the challenges needed to ensure nuclear power is safe enough for it to play a major role in the world's energy future.

Disposal of radioactive waste.

The radioactive waste in Denmark stems from the decommissioning of nuclear research facilities at Risø to be finished by 2073 at the latest. Until then, radioactive waste will be stored at the Risø locality.

New design

Figure 2. Most people don’t want this
in their back yards.

Nuclear engineers are now thinking small, with cheaper Small Modular Reactor (SMR) design. The Russian state atomic energy corporation Rosatom recently delivered a floating nuclear power plant with two small reactors to eastern Siberia. It becomes a 'plug and play' energy source, but more mini-reactors on sea and land will just mean more nuclear accidents. Seaborg Technologies is a private Danish startup company working to develop and commercialize Compact Molten Salt Reactor (CMSR).

While being around since the 1950s thorium breeder reactors are not commercial and will require considerable R&D investment. None of the intended new designs even remotely seem to be viable.

Decommissioning.

The regulatory process for safely decontaminating and dismantling a reactor is well-understood and proven in the US, as demonstrated by the 10 reactors that have completed the decommissioning process. Nineteen more US commercial reactors are in the decommissioning process – a process that must be completed within 60 years. Licensees have set aside nearly $53 billion for decommissioning. Financial aspects of decommissioning – IAEA Doc. The long-term problems of what to do with nuclear waste remain entirely unsolved and the 'bury and forget' policy is untenable.

Fear

If something can go wrong, it will go wrong - be it by a natural disaster, terrorism or most likely by a human error. Even a one-tenth Chernobyl is immeasurable, and the fear will be there all the time.

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