Carbon Pools

 

Understanding Global Warming

Carbon Pools

Carbon Pools.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) beautifully illustrates the Earth's carbon stocks. Fig. 1 of "Annex Henry's Law" - hyperlink - is taken from the IPCC Carbon Cycle AR5 and shows a simplified scheme for the global carbon cycles. The carbon stocks indicated in the same figure are compactly represented in the diagram of the four Carbon Pools.

Emissions.

Carbon dioxide is released during plant respiration and this becomes 120,9 Gt C. annually. This also includes CO2 released during forest fires. The sun is heating the oceans – most near equator – causing an emission of 78,4 Gt C per year.

Sequestering.

During photosynthesis the plants absorb carbon dioxide. On an annual basis it becomes 123 Gt Carbon (C). The oceans and sea ice – most in the North Atlantic – also absorb carbon dioxide ~ 80 Gt C/year.

Imbalance.

Emissions exceed carbon dioxide absorption with 3,8 Gt/y because the oceans are warming and due to absorption delay. 


According to Henry’s law, a balance must be maintained between the concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere and in the ocean’s surface layer. As chemical and biological processes remove CO₂ from surface waters and transport it to deeper layers, space is created for additional CO₂ uptake at the surface. However, this downward transport introduces a delay in the system’s overall response.

Consequently, only an amount of CO₂ roughly equivalent to half of the fossil fuel emissions is absorbed by the oceans on an ongoing basis. An amount corresponding to the remaining emissions stays in the atmosphere, gradually increasing the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide..

Carbon Cycles of the Oceans.

There are other cycles affecting the balance. One is the chemical loop creating a direct link from the atmosphere to the sediments of the sea.

Carbon dioxide in air

↔

Carbon dioxide in sea

↔

Bicarbonate (HCO3−)

↔

Carbonate (CO32−)

↔

Sediment

829 Gt C

80 Gt

190 Gt C

 

33.820 Gt C

 

3.990 Gt C

0,2 Gt

1.750 Gt C

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IPCC describes this chemical loop in AR5 along witha marine biota loop. Both affect the concentrations of the carbon dioxide as is in the skin of the sea (the surface waters) and thus the balance controlled by Henrys law.

Figure 1. An Accounting of the Observed Increase in Oceanic and Atmospheric CO2 and an Outlook for the Future by Pieter Tans.



Two potential atmospheric CO2 futures using a logistics function for the emissions of fossil fuels. Potential emissions (using left axis) for Scenario A (black solid line) total 1000 GtC, and for Scenario B (black dashed line) 1500 GtC. Using the right axis, resulting atmospheric CO2 for Scenario A is shown by the solid red line for the 1000 GtC case, and the dashed red line shows Scenario B for the 1500 GtC case. The right-hand axis starts at the pre-industrial level of 280 ppm.

Pieter Tans shows fig. 1 the results of carbon cycle modelling burning of 1.000 and 1.500 Gt fossil fuel respectively. Atmospheric CO2 and an Outlook for the Future.

The peak rate of emissions in Scenario A occurs in 2029 at 11.1 GtC yr-1. Atmospheric CO2 peaks 40 years later in 2069 at ~ 500 ppm. Scenario B emissions peak in 2044 at 16.1 GtC yr-1 and it only takes an additional 15 years before the emissions peak is reached.

The IPCC assigns the sun a minimal share in climate forcing and must necessarily weigh other causes like CO2 too high. Although carbon dioxide may peak as high as 600 ppm by the end of this century, the impact on temperature is negligible - Michel van Biezen and Antero Ollila, PSIJ 2019


Pieter Tans is an authority in the field and the extraction and use of fossil fuels obviously peaks as shown. 

Understanding Global Warming, Oversigt - LINK

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